现实

想做原画师的你，是否还对这些工作感兴趣？选择后，你将被推荐给更多老板（最多可选 9 个）：

保安 保洁 服务员

收银 厨师 洗碗工

配菜打荷 送餐员 配/理/拣/...

前台 店员/营业员 导购

区别

问：段子和生活有什么区别？

答：段子有意义，你的生活没有意义。

后果

如果地球突然停止转动，我们将会以每秒 465 米的速度向东飞出去并且快速地死去。 而如果地球持续转动的话，我们大多数的人会缓慢地老去、在病痛中煎熬，在恐惧中死去。

反思（一）

小时候看柯南，不懂为什么犯人会因为一些小事杀人，现在长大了开始理解了。

反思（二）

只要一想到：到了 2076 或者 2077 的时候，大街上会跑出来一堆糟老头子，有些玩意还吊着口气，跑到大街上，或者发个朋友圈《早安，夜之城》，就他妈的绷不住。

真相

问：中美大对账都出现了什么有趣的事情？

答：老中在 996，老美在卖血，老毛子在填线，欧洲居然做四休三，环保罢工，享受中国商品，美国保护，毛子资源，还无差别看不起中美俄。该给欧洲放放血了！

逻辑

擦边吃的是青春饭，而医生越老越吃香。

所以医学生去擦边，等于这辈子有了铁饭碗。

盲目相信 NOA 的代价太大了，哪个王八翻译成 “自动驾驶” 的

@PRND21： “无法开门” 这件事目前缺乏有力的证实 or 证伪，暂时要看进一步的消息……

24 秒告知接管，25 秒时接管了，26-28 秒就撞了，等于操作的时间窗口就 2 秒左右……

当然了，你要说驾驶员有没有操作上的问题，那肯定有：在随时观察的情况下（在使用 L2 智能辅助驾驶时这是理所应当的），这个操作的时间窗口会长很多，不止 2 秒。

所以说 L2 很有意义，但它是辅助，辅助 only，驾驶者永远是自己和乘客安全的第一责任人。

不要赌，你和车也许能赌赢 100 次，输一次可能就大事故乃至车毁人亡……

你输得起么？反正我输不起……

@ 寝取的史官： 如果我在游戏里提供挂机功能，但要求玩家随时接管，那玩家的精力消耗会比不能挂机更大

关于 AI 的 46 点思考含金量极其高，建议读完

这就是这些天让我夜不能寐的原因......

1. chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.
2. ChatGPT 4O Image Gen 与 ChatGPT 启动一样大。可能会诞生 1000+ $1-$100m/年的垂直软件企业。
3. we’re in the “mp3 napster era” of content. millions of creators don’t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.
4. 我们正处于内容的“MP3 Napster 时代”。数以百万计的创作者没有意识到，由于 AI，他们的整个 Back Catalog 正在被武器化到他们的竞争中。
5. every calendar, inbox, and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not “AI-enhanced,” fully rethought.
6. 每个日历、收件箱和 CRM 都将在未来 3 年内从头开始重建。而不是“AI 增强”，而是经过全面重新思考。
7. i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it's more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.
8. 我认为人工智能正在创造数字化员工。但它更像是数字雇主。第一个可以管理人类工人的人工智能系统将导致比工业革命更重要的劳动力市场重组。
9. if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews, you're just a step in a weird recursive extinction.
10. 如果你的工作是采访那些将训练人工智能系统的人，这些系统将取代做采访的人，那么你只是一场奇怪的递归灭绝中的一步。
11. ai is turning "service businesses that don't scale" into "product businesses with service margins." the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.
12. AI 正在将“无法扩展的服务业务”转变为“具有服务利润率的产品业务”。新的独角兽将是产品化服务，由 AI 完成 80% 的工作。
13. building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it's the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.
14. 建立社区比建立产品更难，但每个人都假装恰恰相反。现实情况是，大多数初创公司都失败了，因为没有人关心。
15. it's been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?
16. 威尔史密斯意大利面条视频发布已经 739 天了。想象一下，再过 739 天，Gen AI 会发生什么？
17. people building "ai assistants" have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context, history, and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.
18. 构建“AI 助手”的人实际上从未有过助手。真正的助手需要背景、历史和关系。95% 的聊天机器人都没有这些。
19. most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.
20. 大多数客户支持将在 36 个月内实现自动化。不仅仅是第 1 层工单，还有以前需要高级支持人员的复杂、多步骤解决方案。
21. the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.
22. 你的创业公司可能发生的最糟糕的事情是平庸的成功。足以让你继续前进，但不足以改变你的生活。大多数创始人都被困在那里。关于关闭或加倍投入项目，我考虑了很多。
23. the ai backlash won't just come from replaced workers, it'll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.
24. AI 的强烈反对不仅来自被替换的员工，还来自所有意识到他们的整个数字身份在未经同意的情况下被转换为训练数据的人。
25. no one has ever read a terms of service ever
26. 从来没有人读过服务条款
27. the "sketching economy" is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs, taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.
28. “素描经济”是真正的人工智能革命。当任何人都可以将粗略的草图转化为可用于生产的设计时，品味和构思就成为唯一的稀缺资源。
29. i dont know how else to say it, the money (and opportunity for the avg joe) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no, adding industry terms to your prompts isn't the same thing.
30. 我不知道怎么说，AI 初创公司的资金（和 AVG Joe 的机会）是在真正了解行业背景的垂直特定应用程序中。不，在您的提示中添加行业术语不是一回事。
31. consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.
32. 消费类移动业务全面回归。我们从桌面优先的应用程序到移动优先的应用程序，再到现在的 AI 优先的移动应用程序。下一波 $100m/年的应用程序将从第一天开始就内置 AI 的移动优先。
33. the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.
34. AI 中间商热潮才刚刚开始。位于基础模型和特定行业之间的公司将获得大部分价值，而两端都被商品化。
35. we're witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.
36. 我们正在见证一个全新的工作类别的诞生：AI 工作流设计师。能够将人工流程映射到 AI 增强工作流程中的人将成为未来十年收入最高的顾问。
37. ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn't helping my sleep lollll.
38. AI 正在一夜之间创造赢家通吃的市场。将自己确立为特定垂直领域的首选解决方案的窗口可能是 6-12 个月，然后它会关闭十年。这对我的睡眠没有帮助。
39. really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage, hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically, just look at proven apps that have no ai, make them ai-first (if it adds a ton of value to end customer). use ai features (don’t sell ai) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.
40. 真正聪明的策略，以 AI 作为你的不公平优势来重建传统产品，将复杂性隐藏在熟悉的界面后面。基本上，看看没有 AI 的成熟应用程序，让它们成为 AI 优先（如果它为最终客户增加了大量价值）。在创作者主导的营销中使用 AI 功能（不要销售 AI）。这是剧本。
41. distribution is the only moat left. your product, tech, and team can all be replicated. your direct connection to customers cannot.
42. 分销是仅存的护城河。您的产品、技术和团队都可以复制。您与客户的直接连接不能。
43. we'll soon hit the tipping point where custom ai tools are cheaper than hiring humans, even for small businesses.
44. 我们很快就会达到一个转折点，即定制 AI 工具比雇用人类更便宜，即使对于小型企业也是如此。
45. nobody's talking about how ai is making previously "un-acquirable" businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations, the owner-dependent business problem disappears.
46. 没有人在谈论人工智能如何使以前“无法收购”的企业突然成为有吸引力的目标。当您可以自动化作时，依赖于所有者的业务问题就会消失。
47. the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%, every small business becomes a cash flow engine.
48. 即将到来的 SMB 收购狂潮将使 2021 年的科技泡沫看起来平淡无奇。当 AI 将运营成本降低 60% 时，每个小企业都会成为现金流引擎。
49. if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity, how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing?

25. 如果 Vibe Coding 将是一个 $100B 的机会，那么 Vibe Marketing 的机会有多大？

1. Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets, and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.
2. 视频游戏工作室将分为两种不同的类型：生成无限资产的代理驱动内容农场和专注于核心机制的精品工作室。中间将完全消失。
3. Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.
4. 企业摄影实际上已经死了。当他们可以以订阅费用生成无限的完美品牌图像时，没有公司会为库存式照片拍摄支付 2 美元。
5. enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer, and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.
6. 企业销售完全被人工智能颠覆。使用 AI 准确识别何时以及如何与合适的买家交谈，并启动自动化。我可能很快就会在 Pod 上更多地谈论这个。
7. i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we're building the neural connections without realizing it.
8. 我想知道 AGI 是否会从相互关联的代理网络中出现，这些代理网络会发展出没有人设计的涌现属性？我们在不知不觉中构建了神经连接。
9. while genai looks to be the $1T category, many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.
10. 虽然 GenAI 看起来是 $1T 类别，但许多悄无声息的财富将建立在预测 AI 中。知道会发生什么比生成新内容更有价值。
11. the "ai bubble" is actually an excise tax on vcs who can't tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.
12. “AI 泡沫”实际上是对风险投资公司的消费税，他们无法区分真正的创新和重新包装的 OpenAI API。
13. interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back, vibe and tone will drive trust, loyalty, and retention. It's why I'm investing more in our design firm for the AI age @meetLCA

(you can follow for more insights on designing/taste/brand that will stand out)

1. 界面将成为个性。当每个工具都可以反驳时，氛围和语气将推动信任、忠诚度和保留率。这就是为什么我 @meetLCA AI 时代对我们的设计公司进行更多投资（您可以关注有关设计/品味/品牌的更多见解，这将脱颖而出）
2. ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are, what you need, and when you show up.
3. AI 将杀死主页。界面将被入口点所取代，这些入口点会根据您的身份、需求以及您出现的时间而变化。
4. no one will pay for "ai", they’ll pay to solve a $10,000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes, hide the ai.
5. 没有人会为“AI”付费，他们会付费通过 10,000 次点击解决 3 美元/小时的问题。出售结果，隐藏 AI。
6. ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.
7. AI 正在分拆谷歌。每个垂直搜索引擎、目录和比较工具都是变相的数十亿美元机会。
8. every small business will get a “ghost team.” automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers—run by one founder and 5 bots.
9. 每个小企业都会得到一个“幽灵团队”。自动化簿记员、销售代理、营销人员——由一位创始人和 5 个机器人运营。
10. ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models, we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.
11. AI 生成的内容正在创造一种思想的单一文化。当每个人都使用相同的模型时，我们会得到相同的输出。原创的人类思维正在成为终极的溢价。变得奇怪。奇怪的会卖掉。
12. schools won’t be disrupted by ai. they’ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education, build audiences, run experiments, and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.
13. 学校不会被人工智能颠覆。他们将被去中介化。聪明的青少年会跳过正规教育，建立受众，进行实验，学习得更快。孩子们说他们想成为创作者，但创作者正在成为企业家。创业成为最受欢迎的职业。
14. in 18 months, 80% of the “ai startup” category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.
15. 在 18 个月内，80% 的“AI 初创公司”类别将看起来像垃圾邮件。其余的将成为基础设施。
16. conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?
17. 转化率 产品争论已经过时。当 AI 焦点小组可以在一夜之间测试 200 种变体时，为什么还要争论 2 种按钮颜色呢？
18. most of what we call “marketing” is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling, vibes, and brand energy.
19. 我们所说的大部分“营销”即将由 AI 完成。人类将向上游进入讲故事、氛围和品牌能量。
20. the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows, glue tools, and ship outcomes.
21. 您今年可以做出的最佳招聘决定是什么？AI Ops 主管。可以构建工作流程、粘合工具和交付结果的人。
22. the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.
23. 第一家 $1B AGI 初创公司乍一看就像一个玩具。所有改变世界的接口都可以。
24. ai-powered distribution > ai-powered product. a mid product with elite reach will beat a great product with no attention every time.
25. AI 驱动的分销 > AI 驱动的产品。具有 Elite Reach 的中等商品每次都会击败没有关注的优秀商品。
26. people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.
27. 人们仍然讨厌按月订阅。基于结果的定价仍处于早期阶段。实施这将为许多公司带来竞争优势。大型 SaaS 将无法与您竞争。
28. i don't know how long this window stays open, but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools, creating audiences and communities, you've got an unfair advantage.
29. 我不知道这扇窗会打开多久，但我们正处于一个建立企业的所有规则都在被改写的时刻。对于使用这些新工具、创建受众和社区的人来说，您获得了不公平的优势。

i hope you get some sleep.
我希望你能睡一会儿。